What It Takes to Say an AI Control Reduces Loss by a Number
Saying a control reduces exposure is easy and almost always true. Saying it reduces exposure by a specific amount is a different claim, and the machinery for producing one is well established. Set a baseline from frequency and magnitude ranges, simulate, re-estimate the ranges with the control in place, simulate again, and report the difference. The method is sound. Applied to AI controls it runs into two problems, one about which term the control touches and one about what the estimate rests on.